PhD project – Boyle, Laura

Discrete event simulation modelling for the C-Ph distribution

Supervisors: Prof A H Marshall, Dr S Moutari

Funded by: Department for Employment and Learning

The PhD Project

The aim of this PhD research is to make the C-Ph a practical tool for utilisation in hospital wards. There will be three stages to this development. The first will integrate the Coxian phase-type distribution into a discrete event simulation model of activity on the ward. Discrete event simulation will extend the modelling capabilities of the Coxian phase-type distribution by producing queuing performance measures, such as time in the system and time spent waiting in queues and capacity. The inherent flexibility of simulation modelling supports the user to perform management decisions such as changing capacity, implementing different access strategies, changing the rates or cease admissions and discharges for certain time periods. The stochastic nature of health systems and variability in the input and output parameters can also be easily accommodated. The second stage of the PhD will be the development of the theoretical model of the conditional phase-type distribution along with discrete event simulation. Its implementation will be the final stage of the PhD.

The application will focus on the length of stay of patients in NI hospitals with the further potential of, once achieving a successful result in Northern Ireland, applying the resulting system to patients in hospitals in rest of the UK. This has potential of further expansion to many other healthcare facilities and hospitals in similar healthcare countries. Further benefits could arise by facilitating benchmarking across the NHS thus having significant impact on healthcare developments.
Conference/talk Contributions:

Boyle L M, Marshall A H (2015) “Discrete Event Simulation for the Coxian phase-type distribution”, Annual Conference on Applied Statistics in Ireland (CASI), The Irish Statistical Association, 11-13 May 2015, Cork, Ireland.